The Asian Development Bank (ADB) this month released its latest Asian Development Outlook Supplement. Literally, it’s a supplement to the Asian Development Outlook published last April. This is how ADB releases its economic outlook documents for the region- Outlook every April; Update every September; and Supplements every July and December. Such an arrangement gives the opportunity to revise the latest estimates in the eventuality of any significant economic development.
So what does the latest Supplement say? Here’re some quick points:
- Overall, there is only a minor revision from April’s Outlook. Developing Asia’s GDP growth has been slightly lowered from 5.7 to 5.6 percent for FY 2016.
- South Asia to be the strongest sub-region with GDP growth of 6.9 percent and Central Asia to be the weakest with 1.7 percent.
- India takes the position of the fastest growing major economy in the region with a projected GDP growth of 7.4 percent. China, Viet Nam, and Philippines are the only other major economies in the 6 percent plus club.
- The reasons behind India’s strong outlook are good monsoon expected this year and the consequent increase in rural demand. Better manufacturing growth and increased consumer spending also are expected to boost growth.
- However, South Asia and India are not expected to do well when it comes to inflation. Against the region average of 2.8 percent, the former and latter are expected to clock 5.2 and 5.4 percent, respectively. Pickup in India’s inflation is almost entirely attributed to the increase in food prices. Not that great news, end of the day.
- Central Asia is projected to be hit hardest by inflation, with the outlook revised to 11 from 10.8 percent.
Click here to access the original ADB document.
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